Heatwave days

Number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days

Heatwave Days by District

Climate challenges vary by location. Explore region-specific adaptation strategies tailored to local environmental, economic, and social contexts to build resilience effectively.

Region Chickwawa

Figure 1. Heatwave duration: Number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days recorded during the historical baseline years (1981-2010).
Heatwave duration: Number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days for both SSP2-4.5(green) and SSP5-8.5(purple). The dashed lines are the linear trends of the ensemble means for SSP members.
Figure 2. Heatwave duration: Number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days for both SSP2-4.5(green) and SSP5-8.5(purple). The dashed lines are the linear trends of the ensemble means for SSP members.
Chikwawa District has experienced prolonged heatwave event from the 1980s to the present, with an average of around 106 heatwave days per year. Projections indicate that the duration of the heatwaves will increase significantly by the end of the 21st century under both scenarios. The table below summarises the projected duration of heatwaves by the 2080s, based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.

Note: Tables represent ensemble means from climate model projections. Actual values vary across models, and results should be interpreted as approximate rather than exact. 
Current average number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days per year (1981-2010):106 days
Business as usual (SSP2-4.5)Average number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days per year is projected to reach:
Around 102 days by 2040
Around 138 days by 2060
Around 133 days by 2080
Tech- and fossil-fuelled boom (SSP5-8.5)Average number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days per year is projected to reach:
Around 113 days by 2040
Around 166 days by 2060
Around 165 days by 2080

Region Rumphi

Figure 1. Heatwave duration: Number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days recorded during the historical baseline years (1981-2010).
Figure 2. Heatwave duration: Number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days for both SSP2-4.5(green) and SSP5-8.5(purple). The dashed lines are the linear trends of the ensemble means for SSP members.
Rumphi District has experienced relatively short heatwave durations from the 1980s to the present, with an average of around 11 heatwave days per year. Projections indicate that the duration of the heatwaves will increase by the end of the 21st century under both scenarios. The table below summarises the projected duration of heatwaves by the 2080s, based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. 


Note: Tables represent ensemble means from climate model projections. Actual values vary across models, and results should be interpreted as approximate rather than exact. 
Current average number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days per year (1981-2010):11 days
Business as usual (SSP2-4.5)Average number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days per year is projected to reach:
Around 14 days by 2040
Around 36 days by 2060
Around 37 days by 2080
Tech- and fossil-fuelled boom (SSP5-8.5)Average number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days per year is projected to reach:
Around 26 days by 2040
Around 45 days by 2060
Around 60 days by 2080

Region Phalombe

Figure 1. Heatwave duration: Number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days recorded during the historical baseline years (1981-2010).
Figure 2. Heatwave duration: Number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days for both SSP2-4.5(green) and SSP5-8.5(purple). The dashed lines are the linear trends of the ensemble means for SSP members.
Phalombe District has experienced relatively very short heatwave durations from the 1980s to the present, with an average of around 3 heatwave days per year. Projections indicate that the duration of the heatwaves will increase by the end of the 21st century under both scenarios. The table below summarises the projected duration of heatwaves by the 2080s, based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. 


Note: Tables represent ensemble means from climate model projections. Actual values vary across models, and results should be interpreted as approximate rather than exact. 
Current average number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days per year (1981-2010):3 days
Business as usual (SSP2-4.5)Average number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days per year is projected to reach:
Around 3 days by 2040
Around 18 days by 2060
Around 12 days by 2080
Tech- and fossil-fuelled boom (SSP5-8.5)Average number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days per year is projected to reach:
Around 9 days by 2040
Around 32 days by 2060
Around 34 days by 2080

Region Balaka

Figure 1. Heatwave duration: Number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days recorded during the historical baseline years (1981-2010).
Figure 2. Heatwave duration: Number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days for both SSP2-4.5(green) and SSP5-8.5(purple). The dashed lines are the linear trends of the ensemble means for SSP members.
Balaka District has experienced short heatwave durations from the 1980s to the present, with an average of around 22 heatwave days per year. Projections indicate that the duration of the heatwaves will increase by the end of the 21st century under both scenarios. The table below summarises the projected duration of heatwaves by the 2080s, based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. 


Note: Tables represent ensemble means from climate model projections. Actual values vary across models, and results should be interpreted as approximate rather than exact. 
Current average number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days per year (1981-2010):125 days
Business as usual (SSP2-4.5)Average length of rainy season per year is projected to reach: 
Around 129 days by 2040 
Around 106 days by 2060 
Around112 days by 2080 
Tech- and fossil-fuelled boom (SSP5-8.5)Average length of rainy season per year is projected to reach: 
Around 127 days by 2040 
Around 113 days by 2060 
Around 118 days by 2080 

Region Salima

Figure 1. Heatwave duration: Number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days recorded during the historical baseline years (1981-2010).
Figure 2. Heatwave duration: Number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days for both SSP2-4.5(green) and SSP5-8.5(purple). The dashed lines are the linear trends of the ensemble means for SSP members.
Salima District has experienced moderate heatwave durations from the 1980s to the present, with an average of around 38 heatwave days per year. Projections indicate that the duration of the heatwaves will increase by the end of the 21st century under both scenarios. The table below summarises the projected duration of heatwaves by the 2080s, based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.   


Note: Tables represent ensemble means from climate model projections. Actual values vary across models, and results should be interpreted as approximate rather than exact. 
Current average number of days where 35°C is exceeded for 3 consecutive days per year (1981-2010):38 days
Business as usual (SSP2-4.5)Average length of rainy season per year is projected to reach: 
Around 109 days by 2040 
Around 113 days by 2060 
Around 107 days by 2080 
Tech- and fossil-fuelled boom (SSP5-8.5)Average length of rainy season per year is projected to reach: 
Around 107 days by 2040 
Around 100 days by 2060 
Around 96 days by 2080 

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