Key messages
Annual rainfall is projected to decrease by the end of the 21st century.
Two scenarios assessed: SSP2-4.5 (business as usual) and SSP5-8.5 (fossil-fuelled).
Figures are ensemble means from climate models, approximate, not exact.
Historical climate
Annual precipitation baseline (1991–2020)
Figure 1. Annual total precipitation recorded during the historical baseline years (1991–2020).
982 mm/year
Current average annual precipitation
Recorded over the 1981–2010 baseline period. The map (Figure 1) shows how annual total precipitation is distributed across the country.
Future projections
Projected annual precipitation to 2080
The table summarises future annual precipitation across the country by the 2080s, based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
Figure 2. Annual total precipitation projections for SSP2-4.5 (yellow) and SSP5-8.5 (pink). Dashed lines are the linear trends of the ensemble means.
| Scenario | 2040 | 2060 | 2080 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current (1981–2010) | 982 mm/year | ||
| SSP2-4.5 · business as usual | 950 | 945 | 950 |
| SSP5-8.5 · fossil-fuelled | 952 | 978 | 984 |
Values in mm/year. This table represents ensemble means from climate model projections. Actual values vary across models, and results should be interpreted as approximate rather than exact.
Hero photo, Nyika Plateau, Malawi · © Dr. Thomas Wagner (CC BY-SA 3.0)