Precipitation

Malawi has experienced significant annual precipitation, which is projected to decrease by the end of the 21st century.

Baseline 1981–2010 · projections to 2080
Current average
982 mm/yr
1981–2010
By 2080 · SSP2-4.5
950 mm/yr
Business as usual
By 2080 · SSP5-8.5
984 mm/yr
Fossil-fuelled
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Key messages
Annual rainfall is projected to decrease by the end of the 21st century.
Two scenarios assessed: SSP2-4.5 (business as usual) and SSP5-8.5 (fossil-fuelled).
Figures are ensemble means from climate models, approximate, not exact.
Historical climate

Annual precipitation baseline (1991–2020)

Average annual rainfall map of Malawi (1991-2020)
Figure 1. Annual total precipitation recorded during the historical baseline years (1991–2020).
982 mm/year
Current average annual precipitation
Recorded over the 1981–2010 baseline period. The map (Figure 1) shows how annual total precipitation is distributed across the country.
Future projections

Projected annual precipitation to 2080

The table summarises future annual precipitation across the country by the 2080s, based on two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).

Precipitation projection chart
Figure 2. Annual total precipitation projections for SSP2-4.5 (yellow) and SSP5-8.5 (pink). Dashed lines are the linear trends of the ensemble means.
Scenario204020602080
Current (1981–2010)982 mm/year
SSP2-4.5 · business as usual950945950
SSP5-8.5 · fossil-fuelled952978984

Values in mm/year. This table represents ensemble means from climate model projections. Actual values vary across models, and results should be interpreted as approximate rather than exact.